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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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