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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd