Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
